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Brandon Roberts has been a member since April 19th 2012, and has created 310 posts from scratch.

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Five-Year Whole Life Insurance Company Investment Yield Trend: 2016 Edition

 

For five years, we have tracked the investment yield trend of whole life insurance companies and we continue to analyze this data every year because investment income is a primary driver of dividends paid to participating insurance policy holders.

Investment income is not the only contributor to any insurance company’s dividend payout. The other two factors considered each year by the board of directors is

  1.  Claims experience
  2.  Operational expense

    Claims experience plays a much larger role in affecting the overall dividend than operational expense–there simply isn’t large fluctuations in day-to-day operating expenses for companies that have existed for over a century.

Methodology

We use investment performance data reported in statutory accounting reports published by all insurers domiciled in the United States to compute the five year trend of investment yield on admitted assets. This computation tells us the average change in yield on invested assets over the most recent five year period.

For example, if the result of an insurer for this analysis is -.10% per year that means the insurer has experienced a loss in investment yield of .10% (ten basis points) per year for the last five years.

Results

The results of this analysis are as follows:

2016 Whole Life Investment Yield Trend

 

Negatives Across the Board

This  is the first year since we started this analysis that all insurers show a negative trend. In years past, only a few insurers achieved average growth in investment yield year-over-year with most insurers having experienced a decline on average. This result is not surprising given the current trend in interest rates across the broader U.S. economy.

Size Doesn’t Seem to Matter Much

The asset pool size of the insurer seems to have little effect on insurers 5 year trend for investment yield. The top five insurers on this list represent a broad range of asset sizes and all but one, New York Life, have experienced single digit decline year-over-year.

However, smaller asset pool sized companies to make up the entirety of the bottom 5 insurers on the list. Dividing the list in half, most of the larger insurers are found in the top 11.

This Trend is Likely to Remain

Interest rates remain low and don’t show major signs of improvement in the short term. As a result, we do not expect this trend to reverse in any major way for the next several years. Insurers will likely continue the trend of moving to somewhat riskier assets where available. This strategy will be more impactful for smaller insurers and then large ones due to sheer scale of overall assets and the impact smaller alternatives investments have on the total pool.

IPB 078: The Bondex v2.6.4.3

 

To continue on with the discussion of potentially rising interest rates…

We actually get into what it might mean for life insurance companies and for your life insurance policy–whether it happens to be participating whole life or universal life.

Major discussions in this episode:

  • How quickly can you expect your dividend (WL) and/or interest rate (UL) to increase if Greenspan's prediction of a whipsaw comes true?
  • Will the life insurers who were “forced” to raise expenses in their UL contracts over the last couple of years, lower these price increases as interest rates rise? (given that most of them gave the excuse of having to deal with a “prolonged period of low interest rates” to raise their prices on existing policies)

 

IPB 077: The Perilous Bondex

 

 

Former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, believes the next bubble to burst will not be in the equity markets…it will be a normalizing of yields in the bond market as inflation ticks up.

During a Bloomberg interview, Greenspan said…

“By any measure, real long-term interest rates are much too low and therefore unsustainable”

And he went on to say…

When they move higher they are likely to move reasonably fast. We are experiencing a bubble, not in stock prices but in bond prices. This is not discounted in the marketplace”

Greenspan also warned that we are headed toward a “stagflation” that we haven't seen since the 1970's.

But what does any of this have to do with life insurance?

As we all know, life insurance companies are large buyers of bonds and have been long-suffering over the last several years as their bond portfolios mature and they're forced to buy bonds with much lower yields.

Come back next week to hear our take on what it all means for life insurance companies.

IPB 076: The Consequences of Outliving Your Life Insurance

 

Did you know that it's possible to outlive your permanent life insurance?

That entire sentence is discombobulating. When does permanent not really mean permanent?

Recently, a pending court case was brought to our attention on Joseph Belth's blog (former publisher of the Insurance Forum) that raises some interesting debate. You should really take a few minutes to read the entire blog post if this sort of thing interests you, it's worth a quick read.

The long and short is that a gentleman and his wife (Mr. and Mrs. Lebbin) formed an irrevocable life insurance trust (ILIT). They made their two children the trustees, gifted money to the trust each year and the proceeds were used to purchase two separate survivorship and/or second-to-die universal life policies from Transamerica. Mrs. Lebbin is deceased which leaves Mr. Lebbin as the insured.

All seems normal. However, Mr. Lebbin is approaching his 100th birthday and the policies were designed to endow (mature) at age 100. Thus he will receive the net cash value (of unknown value to us).

Mr. Lebbin would like for Transamerica to extend his maturity beyond 100. Transamerica has decided not to do that.

And so begins the lawsuit.

Listen to the episode to hear what we have to say about it.

IPB 075: Stay for the 401k?

In episode 75, our discussion revolves around a suggestion that comes from this article over at Fox Business. In particular, the article points out that many larger and well-known employers are aggressively raising their matching contributions for their employees in the company 401k plan.

The article goes on to suggest that companies believe this is an effective means of retaining talent and helping workers accumulate enough money to retire–making way for younger employees.

We think that all sounds great. More money from the company you work for toward your retirement is generally a good thing.

But…do people really stay with a company because of the matching contribution in the 401k? Not likely.

We've both been in the business of talking personal finances with people for a number of years and never heard anyone mention their sweet 401k as a reason they stayed at a job. The best retention tool seems to be actually paying people more.

 

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